Debates And Polling. - Do we really learn anything?

INTRODUCTION:

Since most of my blog topics are requests from my readers, it creates a backlog for me to get to all the requested topics. If two subject matters are close, I will discuss them in one blog post. This doesn't give me much leeway to discuss issues I may want to discuss. I do fit them in from time to time. However, sometimes I get lucky. Occasionally, someone will request me to discuss a topic I have been wanting to discuss. Such is the case for this week's blog post. Therefore, I am taking this opportunity to jump all over this one. After the last Republican party candidate debate on September 27th., 2023, I received a few emails asking me about debates and polling regarding how it affects choosing a candidate.

This took a great deal of research. After reading at least a dozen articles on this topic, I cited what I thought was excellent and accurate and explained many questions. As for the topic of debates, much of it is my opinion. Let's get started.

ELECTION POLLS:

Many sources take numerous election polls. The problem with polling is that we need to trust the organization that took the poll. The results of some polls can be skewed one way or another depending on who they chose for the target audience of the poll. In a perfect world, a poll should be random. This means not choosing a specific group of people that will lean the poll to go one way or another.

For example, email lists and demographics are readily available data—especially email lists. I get contacted numerous times yearly and am offered money to sell my email list. SOMETHING I WILL NEVER DO. I like my privacy and respect yours. I will never sell my email list for any price.

BerkeleyHass, Don. A. Moore researcher, conducted a study on this. I suggest you read the article. The cornerstone of the article is "Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate."

Many polls are based on a margin of error. The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the entire population. The issue with this is, what is the margin of error of a particular poll? Taken the 2020 presidential election. Almost every poll had Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump. We all know that the polls were wrong. According to Indeed.com, there are two methods of calculating the margin of error.

1. Standard deviation from the population multiplied by the critical value = margin of error.

2. Standard error of the sample multiplied by the critical value = margin of error.

The question is, is the margin of error wide enough? If not, we must ask ourselves, how accurate are the polls? In almost every article I read, the accuracy average was 60%, give or take. What problems can that cause? Sad as it may seem, many voters vote based on what they see the news media state as to what the polls reflect. Therefore, if we are to assume a 60% accuracy factor to be accurate, it is just over a 50% chance you are voting for the best person for the job. It's not the best way to make such an important choice.

However, I understand that many people do not have the time to research every candidate. So is the trade-off not getting the best person for running the country whose decisions will significantly affect your life? I am not a fan of that, especially since we all know and believe that many of the network news media networks are biased and lean one way or the other, meaning Republican or Democrat. Do you want them to make your choices for you?

In my closing, one of the things I state is, "Live with an open mind." If you do not, you are limiting yourself to many possibilities. One of which could be the truth.

We are not living and growing when we make the same mistakes we see others making. If we do, we haven't learned a thing.

Polls are only a resource. Look at them as a tool. However, we must remember that they are based on other people's opinions and do not know the criteria for polling people. This is why many poll numbers vary from polling service to polling service. Like any tool, sometimes it takes more than one to get the job done.

DEBATES:

This is the section I like the most. In theory, people watch debates to hear what candidates say, their opinions on the issues, and their plans to improve things. Here's the catch. Like we see polls on the candidates, the candidates see polls on what people want, what they are looking for, and their concerns. Concerns include the economy, foreign policy, inflation, energy, crime, etc. Do you like it takes an Ivy League college degree to determine what any candidate will highlight? Of course NOT! The best part is they all want what you want and have a plan to make it happen. Yet, in history, very few Presidents made your life better as promised.

I watch these debates for a couple of reasons. I want to hear what each candidate will say, even though the promises are identical. My favorite reason is that I love going to a good comedy show, and these debates are the best comedy show on TV. Everyone interrupts the other, talks simultaneously, and tries to talk over the other, and then the insults start flying. It is comical to watch.

Remember that these are supposed to be highly intelligent, professional, and experienced people. Yet, they act like children. Make homemade popcorn, get your favorite beverage, sit down, and watch the show.

Let's not forget that according to each candidate, their state or what they have done is the best. They each broke all the records. Never once did they make a mistake. Can anyone person be that perfect? If they were, why have some of them lost their elections?

Think about this. When was the last time you watched an excellent constructive debate? I thought I would die laughing when Chris Christie looked directly into the camera and said he would call Donald Trump Donald Duck for ducking out of being there. Come on now, that was funny. Intelligent, professional, and a confidence builder, NOT! But funny. The funniest part is that this is an individual trying to get you to vote for him to be your next president. Frankly, I don't know which is more funny. Weren't we all raised to believe that name-calling is not polite? Maybe he missed the memo.

I am not singling out Chris Christie. They all had their moments; it's just that one stood out like a sore thumb. Out of all the candidates on that stage, there are only two that I would remotely consider as a presidential candidate; the rest need to return to school. I will not share those names because you need to decide for yourself.

A good and structured debate is healthy. It is an excellent way for people to meet the candidates, even if their showing is less than desirable. We need to learn that about them as well. With all fairness to Joe Biden, he now has the lowest approval rate in history for his policies and failures. Yet, everyone voted for him when he told every American citizen what he would do. Now that he is doing it, people are complaining because it is wrong, and Americans are paying the price and suffering. They didn't think about that side of the coil when they voted for him.

Can it be said that debates are only as effective as the degree of intelligence of those watching them? Does that make sense? We are constantly told what we want to hear. However, the two most important questions that are never asked are:

1. WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?

2. WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR IT?

The first question is easy to answer. It comes from some wacky ideas and ideals that, in most cases, will not work. The second question is even easier to answer. The money comes from us, the taxpayers. People somehow seem to forget that. When it happens, all of a sudden, the light bulb goes off in their head that they have less money, and those millions of illegal immigrants don't look so good anymore. Especially since these self-declared 'sanctuary cities' don't have, or are running out of money, to support this large influx of people.

We never seem to think of the consequences of what riding on that high horse we ride upon brings. And there are consequences. We are seeing it now with increased crime rates, our children dying of drug overdoses, neighborhoods unsafe and ridden with people living on the streets, and our most beautiful cities turning into dumps. With that, the cities do not have the money to support this influx of millions of people, and taxpayers can't stretch their dollars any further.

Therefore, I ask you. Why have debates if we will not listen and ask the proper questions? Furthermore, there is no accountability when it goes bust.

IN CLOSING:

To answer the question, "Do we really learn anything?" The answer is no, we do not. This answer is based on the same mistakes we make during and after each election cycle. Most political debates are just a way for candidates to insult one another. I do not believe we learn anything useful from them. They serve the purpose as a platform for shouting matches and a display of disrespect. It is human nature for everyone to want to have the last word. I get it. It gives them their moment in the sun. It would be best if you decided that for yourself.

Polling can be deceiving and far from accurate. Too many people base their choices on polls because they are too lazy or do not have the time to find out things for themselves. I'd rather see a one-hour one-on-one with each candidate where they can answer some of the critical questions. Questions such as:

1. What do you see as wrong?

2. How will you fix it?

3. How will you pay for it?

4. What is your time frame?

5. What are your plans and strategy?

These are just a few critical questions, but I'd like to see them answered without interruption and debate from others, which only takes time away from the issues. Leave the attitude and insults at the door. Please show me what you are made of without being let off the hook. Be that flopping fish out of the water and show me you can swim again, and then I might consider you.

I can go on and on about these topics, but I believe I have touched on the high points. The rest is up to you. Keep this in mind about polls. However, they may or may not be skewed, but they give us a general idea of what people are thinking. However, THE MOST ACCURATE POLL IS CONDUCTED ON ELECTION DAY.

I hope you enjoyed the post. Please subscribe to my blog. Thank you.

Please feel free to leave comments, or if you have a topic you would like me to discuss, you can email me at crondina@caesarrondinaauthor.com. Thank you.

Be safe, stay well, and focus on being happy. And remember to always:

Live with an open mind,

Live with an open heart,

Live your best life.

Best Regards,

Caesar Rondina

Check out my new private investigator series coming soon.

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